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Edward Devlin / NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 09/19/2012  
Name: United States Description: US Economy Assessor: George Washington
Economic Analysis  
1. Importance Very important   The US economy is the #1 in the world.
2. Wisdom Important   Consumers drive the US economy, accounting for nearly 2/3 of all GDP (Gross Domestic Product). As the health of the US consumer goes, so goes the US economy.
3. Knowledge Important   If the US economy is growing at least 2% per year after inflation, it is a favorable time for investing.
4. Current Assessment Fair   The US economy has been experiencing the Great Recession since 2008. The most recent GDP growth rate was 1.7%, under the 2% growth rate needed for a "good" rating.
5. Future Assessment Fair   The US economy is expected to continue growing anemically at more than 1% but less than 2% after inflation.
6. Risk Medium   The risk to the US economy comes from stubbornly high unemployment, large US Fed deficits, ongoing problems with European sovereign debt, weakness in the Chinese economy, and political gridlock in Washington.
Future Assessment Probabilities, Reasons and Explanations
   Possible Outcome Probability Value Reasons and Explanations
1. Awesome   > 4% 10%
2. Good   > 2% 30%
3. Fair   > 1% 50%
4. Bad   > 0% 10%
5. Terrible   < 0% 0%
Key Performance Indicators

Key Performance Indicator Importance   Current Assessment   Future Assessment   Risk  
1. Consumer Durable Goods   Very important   Fair   Fair
2. Economic Cycle   Very important   Fair   Fair
3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)   Very important   Good   Fair
4. Inflation Rate   Very important   Awesome   Awesome
5. Interest Rates   Very important   Awesome   Awesome
6. LIRA - Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity   Important   Fair   Good
7. Personal Income   Important   Fair   Fair
8. Unemployment   Very important   Bad   Bad
9. New Residential Construction   Very important   Bad   Fair
Linked Entities

Industry Importance   Current Assessment   Future Assessment   Risk  
1. Consumer Services   Very important   Fair   Fair   Medium
2. Finance   Important   Fair   Fair   Low
3. Technology   Very important   Bad   Bad   Medium
4. Consumer Durables   Important   Fair   Fair   Medium
5. Public Utilities   Important   Good   Good   Low
6. Basic Industries   Very important   Good   Good   High
7. Energy   Very important   Fair   Fair   Medium
8. Capital Goods   Important   Fair   Fair   Medium
9. Health Care   Important   Fair   Fair   Medium
10. Miscellaneous   Important   Fair   Good   Low
11. Consumer Non-Durables   Important   Fair   Fair   Medium
12. Transportation   Important   Fair   Fair   Low
13. Funds   Very important   Good   Good   Low
14. Alternatives   Important   Awesome   Awesome   Low
15. US Federal Government        
Associated Information
Changes in US nominal GDP
U.S. Economic Growth Continues at Sluggish Pace
Hyperlinks to relevant information
US Economy


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