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Name: 20-50-100 day Simple Moving Average
Description: 20-50-100 day SMA chart
Author: Chris Devlin
 
 
Hyperlinks to relevant information
 
 
Step 1. Review the Key Performance Indicator Analysis  
 
1. Importance Important   The 20-50-100 simple moving average shows the intermediate trend in the stock price and is used to predict the price over the next 3 to 6 months.
2. Wisdom Important   Without a good to awesome rating for the 20-50-100 moving average, it is hard for a stock to be attractive for investing.
3. Knowledge Important   Traders often use the following rules: When the 20 crosses the 50 going up, and the 50 is high above the 100, it is a good time to buy. When the 20 is below the 50, and the 50 is below the 100 going down, one needs to sell.
4. Current Assessment Bad   The price is way below the moving averages, the 20 crossed the 50 going down. A strong sell signal has been issued. The stock is likely to find a new trading range.
5. Future Assessment Fair   It does not appear the moving average will sort themselves out over the next year. The intermediate moving average will lead to a decline in Ebay unless there's a drastic improvement in the corporate strategy and financial results.
 
 
Step 2. Consider the Assessment Probabilities, Reasons and Explanations
 
   Possible Outcome Probability Value Reasons and Explanations
1. Awesome   10% 15%+ An awesome scenario has the 20 day Simple Moving Average $10 above the 50 day Simple Moving Average, and the 50 day moving average $10 above the 100 Simple Moving Average.
2. Good   20% 7.5% A good scenario has the 20 day Simple Moving Average $5 above the 50 day Simple Moving Average, and the 50 day moving average $5 above the 100 Simple Moving Average.
3. Fair   40% 0% The 20-50-100 are on top of each other
4. Bad   20% -5% A bad scenario has the 20 day Simple Moving Average $5 below the 50 day Simple Moving Average, and the 50 day moving average $5 below the 100 Simple Moving Average.
5. Terrible   10% -10% A terrible scenario has the 20 day Simple Moving Average $10 below the 50 day Simple Moving Average, and the 50 day moving average $10 below the 100 Simple Moving Average.


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