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Name: United States Economy
Description: US Macro Economic Analysis
Author: Chris Devlin
US GDP bar chart graph
 
Hoey Forecast for 2010 US GDP
 
 
 
 
Hyperlinks to relevant information
 
US GDP Forecast 2010
 
Step 1. Review the Economic Analysis   (Show detailed report)
 
1. Importance Very important   The US economy is very important when considering your investment decisions, because it drives the world's economy. It is the consumer spending of people in the US that drives economic growth.
2. Wisdom Important   It is wise to consider the health of the US economy when considering your investments. If consumer spending is increasing, the US economy will likely do well. If consumer spending is descreasing, the US economy will find it difficult to do well.
3. Knowledge Important   If the US economy is growing more than 1.5% a year, that is a very good signal and a great opportunity to own stocks. If the US economy is growing between 0.5% and 1.5% a year, it is more prudent to hold more cash or bonds. If the US economy is growing less than 0.5% or is shrinking (negative growth), it is more prudent to have the majority of your holdings in cash or bonds.
4. Current Assessment Fair   The current assessment of the US economy is good. There is moderate growth of 0.925% from last year. Inflation has been low, and unemployment is moderate. Interest rates are moderate.
5. Future Assessment Fair   The greatest probability of the US Economy given all the dynamics is for it to barely continue in a Fair growth cycle of something greater than 0% growth.
 
 
Step 2. Consider the Future Assessment Probabilities, Reasons and Explanations
 
   Possible Outcome Probability Value Reasons and Explanations
1. Awesome   10% 5%+ The housing market rebounds strongly, budget deficits are reduced, and inflation remains low.
2. Good   10% 2%+ The housing market rebounds, budget deficits are flat, and inflation remains low.
3. Fair   50% 0%+ The housing market is soft, budget deficits are grow slowly, and inflation remains low.
4. Bad   20% -3%+ The housing market is soft, budget deficits are grow significantly, and inflation remains low
5. Terrible   10% >-3% The housing market is very soft, budget deficits are grow significantly, and inflation / deflation picks up significantly
 
 
Step 3. Consider the Key Performance Indicators

Key Performance Indicator Analysis Summary   
Key Performance Indicator Importance   Current Assessment   Future Assessment  
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)     Important   Fair   Fair
2. Inflation Rate     Important   Good   Good
3. Interest Rates     Very important   Good   Good
4. Unemployment     Very important   Good   Awesome
5. Total Economy - Current Account     Very important   Awesome   Awesome
6. Consumer Durable Goods     Very important   Good   Good
7. Personal Income     Very important   Awesome   Awesome
8. Saving and Investment     Important   Good   Good
9. Economic Cycle     Very important   Good   Good
10. LIRA - Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity     Important   Bad   Fair
 
Do you agree with the analysis?
Should you continue to search for investments?
 
 
 
Step 4. Continue your search for investments by following one of the links below

Sub-Economy / Geography Analysis Summary   (Show assessment details)
Sub-Economy / Geography Importance   Current Assessment   Future Assessment  
1. Massachusetts Economy  ( follow this link for Municipal Bonds, State Bonds,
Residential Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate)
  Important   Good   Good
2. Louisiana Economy     Very important   Terrible   Terrible
3. Alabama Economy     Important   Bad   Bad

Industry Analysis Summary   (Show assessment details)
Industry Importance   Current Assessment   Future Assessment  
1. US Federal Government  ( follow this link for US Treasury Bills, US Treasury Notes,
US Treasury Bonds, US Federal Agency Securities)
  Very important   Good   Good
2. Financial Industry  ( follow this link for Cash, CD's, Stocks, Stock Options,
ETF''s, Mutual Funds, Index Funds, Corporate Bonds)
  Important   Good   Good
3. Healthcare Industry  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Important   Awesome   Good
4. Basic Materials Industry  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Very important   Good   Awesome
5. Commodities  ( follow this link for Agricultural Commodities, Livestock
Commodities, Natural Resource Commodities)
  Very important   Awesome   Awesome
6. Technology Industry  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Important   Good   Good
7. Utilities Industry  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Important   Good   Awesome
8. Services Industry  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Very important   Good   Good
9. Industrial Goods Industry  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Important   Good   Good
10. Collectibles  ( follow this link for Collectibles)   Neutral   Awesome   Awesome
11. Financial and Equity Futures     Very important   Awesome   Awesome
12. Conglomerates  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Important   Good   Good
13. Consumer Goods  ( follow this link for Stocks, Stock Options, Corporate Bonds)   Very important   Good   Good
 


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