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Economy: United States Description: US Economy Refreshed: Wednesday September 19, 2012 11:28:19 AM GMT

Economic Analysis  
Commentary | Histogram
 
 
Importance      
 Horace Devlin 2012-09-11 20:33:03 Very important The US economy is the #1 in the world.
 George Washington 2012-09-07 11:05:59 Very important The US economy is the #1 economy in the world, and thus, is very important to consider when making investment decisions.
 
Wisdom      
 George Washington 2012-09-07 11:07:03 Important Consumers drive the US economy, accounting for nearly 2/3 of all GDP (Gross Domestic Product). As the health of the US consumer goes, so goes the US economy.
 
Knowledge      
 George Washington 2012-09-07 11:08:00 Important If the US economy is growing at least 2% per year after inflation, it is a favorable time for investing.
 
Current Assessment      
 George Washington 2012-09-07 11:09:50 Fair The US economy has been experiencing the Great Recession since 2008. The most recent GDP growth rate was 1.7%, under the 2% growth rate needed for a "good" rating.
 
Future Assessment      
 George Washington 2012-09-07 11:11:44 Fair The US economy is expected to continue growing anemically at more than 1% but less than 2% after inflation.
 
Risk      
 George Washington 2012-09-07 11:14:46 Medium The risk to the US economy comes from stubbornly high unemployment, large US Fed deficits, ongoing problems with European sovereign debt, weakness in the Chinese economy, and political gridlock in Washington.
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Key Factors  
Commentary | Histogram
 
Consumer Durable Goods    
 
Economic Cycle    
 
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)    
 Horace Devlin  2012-09-11 20:40:23  Good  The US economy, despite its many setbacks, is doing well.

 George Washington  2012-09-07 13:46:24  Fair  The Q2CY12 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth rate was 1.7%. The previous quarter was 2.-0%. At least 2.0% growth is needed for a "good" rating.
 
Inflation Rate    
 
Interest Rates    
 
LIRA - Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity    
 
Personal Income    
 
Unemployment    
 George Washington  2012-09-07 13:12:41  Bad  The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August 2012, which was a lot below the consensus of 130,000 and far off the a hoped for 200,000. The US government also revised July's numbers downward, from 163,000 jobs to 141,000.
Curiously, the unemployment rate fell from 8.3% to 8.1%, with the "real" unemployment rate (U6) falling from 15% to 14.7%.
The reason the unemployment rate dropped, though, was due to a sharp drop in the size of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to 65.3%, its lowest level since September 1981.
The US economy added private sector jobs for the 30th consecutive month, yet also saw unemployment stay above 8% for the 43rd consecutive month.
 
New Residential Construction    
 System Administrator  2012-09-19 10:32:52  Bad  Housing starts continue to be less than 800K per month. August 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 750K. That is up 30% since a year earlier.

Building permits were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 803K, which is about 25% better than a year earlier.

Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 689K, up 12% from a year earlier.

Reference:

  • NAHB: National Association of Home Builders

  • US Commerce Dept: US New Residential Construction news release
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     Horace Devlin  2012-09-04 15:16:37  Good  Despite harsh financial problems, the overall economic health of North America is quite strong.
     
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